How it unfolded
In recent weeks, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, culminating in a series of attacks by Iran that have severely impacted Qatar’s LNG supply capabilities. India, which relies heavily on these supplies, is now facing a significant energy crisis. Qatar is responsible for approximately 40% of India’s LNG imports, making the situation critical.
On October 1, Iranian forces targeted Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, resulting in substantial damage that has sidelined 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated that repairs could take between three to five years, leaving India and other nations scrambling for alternatives.
The fallout from these attacks has been immediate and severe. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas, has become nearly impassable, affecting 40% to 50% of India’s crude imports. Brent crude prices surged over 10%, briefly exceeding $119 per barrel, as markets reacted to the instability.
European gas prices also spiked, increasing by 35% following the news of the LNG outage. This surge has raised alarm bells in India, where 90% of LPG imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz. With domestic LPG production increasing by about 36%, India is trying to mitigate the impact of these disruptions.
Indian officials are actively seeking alternative sources for LNG and LPG to stabilize supply chains. “We are trying to pick up the cargoes from other sources,” said Sujata Sharma, indicating the urgency of the situation. However, the ongoing disruptions mean that Indian buyers may need to procure higher-priced spot cargoes or reduce consumption altogether, as warned by analyst Sumit Ritolia.
India’s vulnerability is underscored by its heavy reliance on imports, with 85% to 90% of its oil coming from the Middle East. The top five sources of crude petroleum for India—Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the USA—account for around 83% of imports in fiscal 2025. This dependency makes the country particularly susceptible to geopolitical tensions.
As the situation develops, the implications for energy security in India are profound. The attacks have not only disrupted supplies but have also raised questions about the reliability of energy infrastructure in the region. Randhir Jaiswal, an Indian official, previously emphasized the need to avoid targeting civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, across the region.
With the current state of affairs, India must navigate a complex landscape of energy procurement while facing rising costs and potential supply shortages. The long-term ramifications of these disruptions could reshape India’s energy strategy and its reliance on Middle Eastern imports.
